Is Mike Pence a tit?
A. Yes
B. No, but I really mean yes
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona
First of all, I want to show that it is possible to rig a red state into a Democratic-majority House delegation:
1st District (blue): Open. Gary and Hammond down to Covington. 60% Obama. Safe D.
2d District (green): Pete Visclosky (D-Merrillville). Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, and Logansport. 55% Obama. Lean D.
3d District (purple): Gerrymander queen Jackie Walorski (R-Jimtown). In my ongoing effort to get rid of Walorski, I give you this South Bend and Elkhart district. 57.8% Obama. 2014 candidate Joe Bock (D-South Bend) would not lose this district in 2016. Lean D.
4th District (red): Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe). Goshen, Angola, Warsaw, and Wabash. 60.5% McCain. The reddest district of this map. Safe R.
5th District (gold): Open. I-69 district. Fort Wayne to Anderson. 50.4% Obama. Tossup.
6th District (teal): Open. Fort Wayne suburbs, Richmond, Greensburg, and Greenfield. 59.2% McCain. Safe R.
7th District (dark gray): Luke Messer (R-Shelbyville). Columbus, Seymour, Franklin, and Lawrenceburg. 59.9% McCain. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Open or Larry Bucshon (R-Newburgh). Ohio River district. Evansville to Madison, with the Louisville suburbs in between. 50.1% Obama. Former rep Brad Ellsworth (D-Evansville) could give it another go if he has nothing else to do. Heck, he might even win if the wind is blowing correctly in 2016. If Bucshon gets scared, he could always go the 9th instead. Otherwise, he may just stay here to prevent Ellsworth or another Blue Dog from scooping an easy win. Tossup with Bucshon, Lean D without Bucshon and with Ellsworth.
9th District (cyan): Open or Bucshon. Evansville suburbs, Vincennes, Bedford, and Salem. Much of the "Bloody Eighth" (which Bucshon currently represents) is in this district, so Bucshon may feel more at home here. 57.5% McCain. Safe R no matter who the nominees are.
10th District (deep pink): Open or Todd Young (R-Bloomington). Lafayette, Terre Haute, and Bloomington. 54.7% Obama. Young could move to the Bloomington suburbs in the 11th, but he may be screwed there, as well. Tossup with Young, Lean D without Young.
11th District (chartreuse): Open or Young. Downtown Indianapolis, Bloomington suburbs, and Lebanon. 54.1% Obama. Only slightly less blue than the 10th, so Young would slightly have a better chance of holding his seat. Tossup with Young, Lean D without Young.
12th District (cornflower blue): Susan Brooks (R-Carmel). Kokomo, Frankfort, Carmel, and Plainfield. 58.8% McCain. Safe R.
13th District (dark salmon): Todd Rokita (R-Clermont). Northern Indianapolis, New Castle, and Muncie. 52.2% Obama. If all else fails, Rokita could slide over to the 12th and give Brooks a primary, leaving the door open for another moderate Democrat. Tossup.
14th District (olive): Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis). Indianapolis and nothing else. 68.1% Obama. Safe D.
As you can see, with the right candidates, we could take 9 of the 14 districts in the Hoosier State and give Republicans headaches for a long time.
16 Electoral Votes: If Pence taints this state enough, Indiana could be in play next year, just as it was in 2008. I won't hold my breath, though. Lean R.
Since a map like that will never happen in Indiana, here is a more realistic design:
1st District (blue): Visclosky. The northern two-thirds of Lake County. Gary, Hammond, and Merrillville. 68.1% Obama. Safe D.
2d District (green): Open. Portage, Valparaiso, LaPorte, the southern one-third of Lake County, and the rest of northwestern Indiana. 51.1% Obama. Tossup.
3d District (purple): Walorski. Still South Bend to Elkhart, but I've swapped out blue LaPorte for conservative Goshen. 52.8% Obama. Walorski is still in danger of elimination, but the results would be closer. Tossup.
4th District (red): Stutzman. Angola to Kokomo. 59.9% McCain. Safe R.
5th District (gold): Open. Fort Wayne, four whole counties to its immediate south, and half of one county to its immediate north. 53.7% McCain. Safe R.
6th District (teal): Open. Muncie, Anderson, and Richmond. McCain plurality (49.6%). It's the kind of district where a Blue Dog could win. Tossup.
7th District (dark gray): Open or Carson. The southern half of Indianapolis. 59.4% Obama. Safe D.
8th District (slate blue): Open or Carson. The northern half of Indianapolis, plus Clermont to fill out the population and to piss off Rokita. 66.1% Obama. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Brooks and Rokita. Northern and western Indianapolis suburbs. 61% McCain, making this the reddest district of this state. No doubt that Rokita would rather run against Brooks in the Republican primary here than against Carson in the general in the 8th. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Open. Lafayette, Logansport, and Crawfordsville. 50.3% McCain. Again, a Blue Dog could win here. Tossup.
11th District (chartreuse): Young. Bloomington and Terre Haute. 51.6% Obama. Tossup.
12th District (cornflower blue): Messer. Columbus, Franklin, Shelbyville, and Lawrenceburg. 58.9% McCain. Safe R.
13th District (dark salmon): Open. Louisville suburbs, Bedford, and Seymour. 54.4% McCain. Safe R.
14th District (olive): Bucshon. Evansville and Vincennes. This is the true successor to the "Bloody Eighth". 52.4% McCain, although the voters are notoriously erratic and can just as easily vote for a moderate Democrat. For that reason, I have to tag this a Tossup.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 73 (added IN-1, IN-14)
Lean D: 46 (added IN-2, IN-3, IN-8, IN-10, IN-11)
Tossup: 15 (added IN-5, IN-13)
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 103 (added IN-4, IN-6, IN-7, IN-9, IN-12)
Total: 119 D, 15 Toss, 110 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 69 (added IN-1, IN-7, IN-8)
Lean D: 27
Tossup: 29 (added IN-2, IN-3, IN-6, IN-10, IN-11, IN-14)
Lean R: 10
Safe R: 109 (added IN-4, IN-5, IN-9, IN-12, IN-13)
Total: 96 D, 29 Toss, 119 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), WI (14) = 59
Tossup: CO (13), MO (15), NE (1) = 29
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 114 D, 29 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 55
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 42
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NV (8) = 45
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 49
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 97 D, 45 Toss, 174 R