I'm going on vacation to North Carolina next week, so I'm giving DK a bonus state this week. As Kinky Friedman always says, "Why the hell not?"
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado
A pair of maps for the land of 10,000 Michele Bachmann jokes lakes. We're up to 12 cube root districts now. Let's do the gerrymander first, as always:
MSP metro:
1st District (blue): Keith Ellison (DFL-Minneapolis). Minneapolis, Fridley, and Blaine. 76% Obama. Safe DFL.
2d District (green): Open. Most of Hennepin County. Includes immediate Minneapolis suburbs such as St. Louis Park, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center. 54% Obama. Lean DFL.
3d District (purple): Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie). Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Edina, Minnetonka, and all of Carver County. 55.8% Obama. Paulsen could be looking for a new job. Tossup with Paulsen, Lean DFL without Paulsen.
4th District (red): Open. Northern and eastern St. Paul suburbs. Includes Stillwater, home of that batshit crazy ex-congresswoman. 55.9% Obama. Lean DFL.
5th District (gold): Betty McCollum (DFL-St. Paul) and John Kline (R-Lakeville). The majority of St. Paul and moving down I-35 to Eagan, Burnsville, and Lakeville. 60.8% Obama. Kline is dead in the water here, so he may move to the 6th. But Kline may lose there, as well. Safe DFL.
6th District (teal): Open (or Kline). Eastern St. Paul down to Rochester. 53.9% Obama. Just blue enough to give Kline nightmares and possibly force him into a long-awaited retirement. Tossup with Kline, Lean DFL without Kline.
7th District (dark gray): Tim Walz (DFL-Mankato). Winona, Austin, Albert Lea, and Mankato. 53.1% Obama. Walz can breathe a little easier, as he goes from a R+1 district to a D+1 district. It won't stop the GOP from targeting him year after year, though. Lean DFL.
8th District (slate blue): Tom Emmer (R-Delano). Shakopee out to southwestern Minnesota. 54.2% McCain. Safe R.
9th District (cyan): Collin Peterson (DFL-Detroit Lakes). Tendril-heavy western Minnesota district. St. Cloud, Moorhead, and Bemidji. 51.7% Obama. Peterson's district goes from pink to purple, so we have a decent chance to hold on to it whenever Peterson retires. Lean DFL with Peterson, Tossup without Peterson.
10th District (deep pink): Rick Nolan (DFL-Crosby). Northeastern Minnesota, including Duluth and Brainerd. 57.7% Obama. Nolan is safe, and we'll easily keep this district whenever he retires. Safe DFL.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. Northern MSP suburbs and exurbs, including Coon Rapids and Andover. 53.7% McCain. Safe R.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Leftovers district. Monticello, St. Cloud suburbs, Alexandria, and Fergus Falls. 56.6% McCain. Safe R.
14 Electoral Votes: Easily a Lean D.
A more moderate map:
MSP metro:
1st District (blue): Open. Northern and western Hennepin County. St. Louis Park and Golden Valley are swapped out for Minnetonka. 52.5% Obama. Tossup.
2d District (green): Open. Northern Minneapolis and all of Anoka County. 53.8% Obama. Lean DFL
3d District (purple): Ellison. Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, Golden Valley, Edina, and the northern part of Eden Prairie. 74.8% Obama. Inclusion of part of Eden Prairie guarantees that Paulsen will run in the 4th, where he could still lose. Safe DFL.
4th District (red): Paulsen, if he doesn't flat out quit. Eden Prairie, Bloomington, Eagan, and Burnsville. 54.7% Obama. Tossup with Paulsen, Lean DFL without Paulsen.
5th District (gold): McCollum. Most of Ramsey County, all of St. Paul. 66.6% Obama. Safe DFL.
6th District (teal): Kline. Eastern St. Paul suburbs down to Hastings, Lakeville, and Red Wing. 51.5% Obama. Kline won't hate this district as much as the ones above, but he would still be in for a dogfight. Tossup.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Southeastern Minnesota. Winona, Rochester, Austin, and Albert Lea. 52.7% Obama. Tossup.
8th District (slate blue): Walz. Shakopee to Mankato. 51.7% McCain. Probably too red for Walz to survive beyond 2018, but anything could happen. As long as he's the incumbent, I'll call it a Tossup.
9th District (cyan): Emmer. Southwestern Minnesota. 53.6% McCain. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Peterson. A much cleaner western Minnesota district. Without St. Cloud here, it sinks to a McCain-plurality district. Since this district has the same PVI as his current district, he'll remain the favorite until he leaves Congress. Lean DFL with Peterson, Lean R without Peterson.
11th District (chartreuse): Nolan. Duluth. Not much more to be said here. 57.8% Obama. Safe DFL.
12th District (cornflower blue): Open. Central Minnesota. St. Cloud and Brainerd. 54.4% McCain. Safe R.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 51 (added MN-1, MN-5, MN-10)
Lean D: 28 (added MN-2, MN-3, MN-4, MN-6, MN-7, MN-9)
Tossup: 10
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 68 (added MN-8, MN-11, MN-12)
Total: 79 D, 10 Toss, 75 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 47 (added MN-3, MN-5, MN-11)
Lean D: 16 (added MN-2)
Tossup: 17 (added MN-1, MN-4, MN-6, MN-7, MN-8)
Lean R: 10 (added MN-10)
Safe R: 74 (added MN-9, MN-12)
Total: 63 D, 17 Toss, 84 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 45
Tossup: CO (13), NE (1) = 14
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 85 D, 14 Toss, 125 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 28
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), NV (8) = 30
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 68 D, 30 Toss, 126 R