If somebody can explain to me why Montana Republicans have an obsession with prosthetic anuses, you're a better man than I am.
I realize that's the wrong state to lead this diary entry, but I just had to toss that out there.
Just click below the orange squiggle so we can get on with another southern state.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Part 6 -- Mississippi, Iowa
Part 7 -- Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon
Part 8 -- Kentucky
Part 9 -- South Carolina
The Bayou would get four new congresscritters and two redistricting scenarios.
Pro-Democratic gerrymander:
1st District (blue): Here's another one of those pornographic minority-majority districts. All of the solidly Democratic districts in northern Louisiana. Bastrop, Monroe, Minden, Shreveport, Mansfield, Natchitoches, and Alexandria. 66.6% Obama open seat with an overwhelming 66.4% Black majority. This district actually has a higher minority population than the New Orleans district at the bottom of this list. John Fleming (R-Minden) will avoid this district at all costs. Safe D
2d District (green): Republican vote sink made up of the outskirts of Minden, Shreveport, Natchitoches, and Alexandria. 77.8% McCain. Reddest district in this map. Fleming will definitely run here. Most of his current district is included here, anyway. Safe R
3d District (purple): This 7-shaped district runs along the borders of Arkansas and Mississippi. It includes Opelousas and parts of Lafayette. Up to two incumbents live here. Ralph Abraham (R-Maugham) will definitely run here because this territory is pretty much familiar to him. Whether or not he lives within this district, Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) will run in a district that looks more like his current district. 62.7% McCain. Safe R
4th District (red): The "heel" of Louisiana, centered on Lake Charles. Boustany's current district is divided between this and the new 5th. Boustany could carpetbag here, but he would almost certainly run in the 5th since it includes most of Lafayette. That makes this an open 66.2% McCain seat. Safe R
5th District (gold): Lafayette to Houma. Boustany will have no trouble winning this 67.7% McCain district. Safe R
6th District (teal): Outskirts of Baton Rouge and Opelousas. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) would have no choice but to run here. The rest of Baton Rouge is in a solid-blue district. 73.5% McCain. Safe R
7th District (dark gray): Not as offensive as the 1st District, but this baconmander could be enough to give Republicans and VRA proponents conniptions. Open seat that stretches from Baton Rouge to Metairie. 70.9% Obama from a 63.3% Black population. Safe D
8th District (slate blue): Lake Pontchartrain to the Gulf, by way of LaPlace, Jefferson, and Metairie. Although the top and bottom sections look separate, they are connected by districts that wrap around the eastern end of the 7th District. Steve Scalise (R-Racist Jefferson) may have some trouble in a primary, since less than 1/3 of his current district is located here. But in a 73.2% McCain district, any Republican will handily win the general. Safe R
9th District (cyan): A beautifully compact district between New Orleans and Mississippi. Hammond and Slidell. No incumbents in this 71.7% McCain district. Safe R
10th District (deep pink): Non-gerrymandered minority-majority district. New Orleans and Chalmette. Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) loses a chunk of the African-American population to the 7th District, but this district is still above half (54.3%). Even though this is the least racially diverse of the three blue districts, this is actually the bluest. 72.5% Obama. Safe D
12 Electoral Votes: Safe R
Likely redistricting:
1st District (blue): Shreveport, Minden, and Mansfield. 55.8% McCain. For the time being, Fleming will win a few more elections... but if the Shreveport-Bossier City area grows and turns bluer, this district will become competitive. Safe R for now.
2d District (green): The rest of northern Louisiana. Natchitoches, Monroe, and Bastrop. 60.5% McCain. Abraham faces no danger. Safe R
3d District (purple): Central Louisiana district, with Alexandria the focal point. The northern portion of Lake Charles is included. Open seat. 68.6% McCain. Safe R
4th District (red): Heel. Southern Lake Charles to western Lafayette. Again, Boustany has a choice between the new 4th and the new 5th. He will probably take the 4th to make room for Graves in the 5th. 62.4% McCain. Safe R
5th District (gold): Opelousas and everything between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. As I just said, Graves will run here to avoid the blue Baton Rouge district. 59.3% McCain. Safe R
6th District (teal): Finally, Baton Rouge has its own district. Non-gerrymandered 53.6% minority-majority. Although this district is perfect for an African-American Baton Rouge-based rep, minority participation in this 51.2% Obama district could drop off enough in a runoff or a midterm to elect a Republican. Tossup
7th District (dark gray): That very conservative corner with Hammond and Slidell. 72% McCain. With the Democratic gerrymanders undone in the northern half of the state, this open district now becomes Louisiana's reddest. Safe R
8th District (slate blue): Eastern suburbs of Baton Rouge, down to LaPlace and Houma. Open 66.9% McCain district. Safe R
9th District (cyan): All of the New Orleans suburbs are left whole. Metairie, Jefferson, and Chalmette. 66.8% McCain. This district is now made up of about half of Scalise's current district, so he would likely survive a primary against any random Republican not closely tied to David Duke. Safe R
10th District (deep pink): Orleans Parish with a little bit of Jefferson Parish. 73.6% Obama with a 55.3% Black majority. The only thing that can bring down Richmond is a freezer full of cash. Safe D
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 41 (added LA-1, LA-7, LA-10)
Lean D: 19
Tossup: 9
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 55 (added LA-2, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-8, LA-9)
Total: 60 D, 9 Toss, 62 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 37 (added LA-10)
Lean D: 14
Tossup: 11 (added LA-6)
Lean R: 9
Safe R: 60 (added LA-1, LA-2, LA-3, LA-4, LA-5, LA-7, LA-8, LA-9)
Total: 51 D, 11 Toss, 69 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AR, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: NE (1) = 1
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 97
Total: 71 D, 1 Toss, 113 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: IA (9), NV (8) = 17
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 97
Total: 54 D, 17 Toss, 114 R